鼠道股生: Get ready to trade oil rebound.

Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Get ready to trade oil rebound.

Oil has been down from $147 to $118 recently. Now is on the the 2nd down leg. When it down to $100-$110 will be a good time to jump in for the rebound to $125 area.

At that time, ready to buy
(1) Put on Air transportation stocks.
(2) Call on oil stocks.
(2) Call on proshares on oil/energy ETFs
(3) Put on untrashort oil/energy ETFs.
(4) Maybe Call on SKF(ultrashort financial) also.

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忍-等-稳-准-狠

计划-实施-成功
- 在交易前要有明确的交易计划, 有效的计划能帮助你实现成功的目标.
- 按计划操作并有效地实施自我控制能力.
- 没有规矩不成方圆, 钢铁般的纪律是成功的前提.
- 切忌临盘交易的时候把事前制定好的计划抛到九霄云外，让恐惧和贪婪主宰交易焉能取胜？

忍从容镇静.
- 心态必须从容镇静，才能够很好地分析和操作.
- 当一个人能从容的对待一切的时候，智慧、沉稳和力量就会一起涌现.
- 夹着尾巴做一只胆小的小老鼠. 贪梦是魔鬼冲动是魔鬼自负是魔鬼情绪化的操作是失败的根源
- Don't overtrade!

等守株待兔.
- 耐心等待机会的出现, 在最合适的时机重拳出击.
- Wait-Wait-Wait for Over-Over-Over Extended.
- 没有机会就休息! 耐得住寂寞，静若处子，动若脱兔.

稳三思而后行.
- 深思熟虑, 不打无准备之仗.
- 低买高卖. 高空低收. BUY at Bottom, SHORT at Top.
- NO pump buy NO dip short!
- One trend only! Never hope on 2nd leg!
- Always with stop! Cut loss quickly! Never add to a loss position!
- 见好就收，落袋为安. 不管多少, 挣了钱就好!
- 不能做死多头; 也不能做死空头; 要做坚定的滑头.

准在恰当的时间做正确的决策.
- Killing Entry is the most important.
- Wait-Wait-Wait for OVER-OVER-OVER extended only.
- Killing Entry = Short at Top, Buy at Bottom. No pump buy, no dip short. No quick entry after a quick pump or dump.
- 一看二慢三通过. Over Over Over Extended Only! With 1, 2, 3 waves. Wave 1 看 Wave 2 慢 Wave 3 开干.
- Observe Law of support and resistance. Enter/Exit at doulbe top/bottom.
- 远离震荡，节约时间. Bull makes money, Bear makes money, Pig will be slaughtered!!!
- 偷了就跑. Stalk and ambush. 蛰伏-突袭. 像小老鼠一样保持着蛰伏，一旦出现机会，立即出击并迅速获利了结.

狠勇于出击.
- 大行情低风险敢于用重拳出击, 小行情大风险要控制仓位

PUMP & DUMP
- 股票本无价，大涨必大跌.
- 世上没有只涨不跌的股市(票), 也没有只跌不涨的股市(票).

Trend is your friend
- 炒家不如藏家藏家不如捂家

Strategies & Targets

Trading Strategies

Warren Buffet: be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful!

Strategy A. Reversal Play

- SHORT at Top. 超涨放空
- Buy at Bottom. 超跌反弹
- Buy at pullback on strong uptrend. 强势回撤介入.
- One Trend Only. Don't hope on 2nd leg!

SHORT at Top.

1. 1st Over-over-over Extended Top Play (Reversed V play).
A) Over-over-over extended.
B) With final big crazy pump & short squeeze.
C) Gap up.

2. 2nd Double Top Crack&Crash Top Play (M play).
A) Over-over-over extended pump top (1st top) with a crack.
B) Pull-up back to the 1st top level slowly with decreased volume.
C) Bigin to drop down.

Buy at Bottom.

1. 1st Extended Bottom Play (V Play).
A) Over-over-over extended.
B) With final big carzy dump & panic selling.
C) Gap down.

2. 2nd Double Bottom Pump&Shoot Bottom Play (W Play).
A) Over-over-over extened dump bottom (1st bottom) with a pump.
B) Pull-down back to the 1st bottom level slowly with decreased volume.
C) Begin to come back up.

Different Term Play

- Daytrading
- Short-term Trading
- Position Trading

Strategy B. Trend Following Play.

1. Bubble Trading
找到现阶段有可能形成 bubble 的题材, 在 bubble 形成的早期做 Long/Call, 在顶部做 short/Put.
Bubble 都需要一定的时间才能成熟, 要大胆 long, 要耐心等待等 Bubble 成熟, Bubble 破裂 (after crack, Crack and Crash) 后才开始 Short/Put .
如: 中国经济火时的中国概念股 (SINA, NTES, SOHU, SNDA) , 奥运行情时的 SOHU, 黄金涨时黄金开矿业 ( , 石油涨时的太阳能 (STP, SOLF, LDK, CSUN), 能源危机时的煤炭业 (PCX). 其它如 GOOG, BIDU, RIMM, AAPL, GRMN, VMW, V 等.

2. Down Play
找到现阶段出现危机的题材进行 Short/Put. 如房产泡沫破后的房贷产业.

Trading Targets

Target A - 5% Play

选择一次交易有 >5% 获利空间的目标进行偷窃.
仔细观察耐心等待机会的出现. 在最佳机会时半仓出击. 及时获利了结. 每周一次即可.

Target B - Double your money

选择长线趋势明确的股票进行狩猎. 买入2-3月到期的 Put or Call. 获利目标需 >100%. 长线持有. 从 $1000 元开始, 下次操作连本带利出击.

鼠道股生

Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Get ready to trade oil rebound.

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